JEE Challenger
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Minimum Coin Tosses to Achieve At Least Two Heads

Determine the minimum number of times a fair coin must be flipped such that the likelihood of obtaining at least two heads reaches at least 0.960.96.

Official Numerical Answer8

Step-by-Step Solution

Let nn be the number of times a fair coin is tossed.

Let XX be the random variable denoting the number of heads obtained in nn tosses. Since the coin is fair, the probability of getting a head in a single toss is p=12p = \frac{1}{2}, and the probability of getting a tail is q=1−p=12q = 1 - p = \frac{1}{2}.

Thus, XX follows a binomial distribution X∼Binomial(n,12)X \sim \text{Binomial}\left(n, \frac{1}{2}\right), and the probability of obtaining exactly kk heads in nn tosses is given by: P(X=k)=(nk)(12)k(12)n−k=(nk)(12)nP(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^k \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^{n-k} = \binom{n}{k} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n

We are required to find the minimum value of nn such that the probability of obtaining at least two heads is at least 0.960.96: P(X≥2)≥0.96P(X \ge 2) \ge 0.96

Using the complement rule, we can rewrite P(X≥2)P(X \ge 2) as: P(X≥2)=1−P(X=0)−P(X=1)P(X \ge 2) = 1 - P(X = 0) - P(X = 1)

Substitute the probabilities for X=0X = 0 and X=1X = 1: P(X=0)=(n0)(12)n=12nP(X = 0) = \binom{n}{0} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n = \frac{1}{2^n} P(X=1)=(n1)(12)n=n2nP(X = 1) = \binom{n}{1} \left(\frac{1}{2}\right)^n = \frac{n}{2^n}

Therefore, P(X≥2)=1−(12n+n2n)=1−n+12nP(X \ge 2) = 1 - \left(\frac{1}{2^n} + \frac{n}{2^n}\right) = 1 - \frac{n+1}{2^n}

Now, set up the inequality: 1−n+12n≥0.961 - \frac{n+1}{2^n} \ge 0.96 n+12n≤1−0.96\frac{n+1}{2^n} \le 1 - 0.96 n+12n≤0.04\frac{n+1}{2^n} \le 0.04 n+12n≤125\frac{n+1}{2^n} \le \frac{1}{25} 2nn+1≥25\frac{2^n}{n+1} \ge 25

Now, we test positive integer values for nn:

  • For n=6n = 6: 266+1=647≈9.14<25\frac{2^6}{6+1} = \frac{64}{7} \approx 9.14 < 25

  • For n=7n = 7: 277+1=1288=16<25\frac{2^7}{7+1} = \frac{128}{8} = 16 < 25

  • For n=8n = 8: 288+1=2569≈28.44≥25\frac{2^8}{8+1} = \frac{256}{9} \approx 28.44 \ge 25

Since n=8n = 8 is the smallest integer satisfying the inequality, the minimum number of tosses required is 88.