JEE Challenger
More from Probability (Advanced)

Calculation of Probabilities of Events and Conditional Probabilities

Given two events XX and YY such that P(X)=13P(X) = \frac{1}{3}, P(X∣Y)=12P(X|Y) = \frac{1}{2}, and P(Y∣X)=25P(Y|X) = \frac{2}{5}, then which of the following options is/are correct?

Options

A

P(Y)=415P(Y) = \frac{4}{15}

Correct
B

P(X′∣Y)=12P(X'|Y) = \frac{1}{2}

Correct
C

P(X∩Y)=15P(X \cap Y) = \frac{1}{5}

D

P(X∪Y)=25P(X \cup Y) = \frac{2}{5}

Step-by-Step Solution

To determine the correct options, we analyze the given information step-by-step using the basic laws of probability and conditional probability.

1. Given Data: P(X)=13P(X) = \frac{1}{3} P(X∣Y)=12P(X|Y) = \frac{1}{2} P(Y∣X)=25P(Y|X) = \frac{2}{5}


2. Calculating P(X∩Y)P(X \cap Y): By definition of conditional probability: P(Y∣X)=P(X∩Y)P(X)P(Y|X) = \frac{P(X \cap Y)}{P(X)}

Substitute the given values into the formula: 25=P(X∩Y)13\frac{2}{5} = \frac{P(X \cap Y)}{\frac{1}{3}}   ⟹  P(X∩Y)=25×13=215\implies P(X \cap Y) = \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{1}{3} = \frac{2}{15}

Thus, Option (C), which states P(X∩Y)=15P(X \cap Y) = \frac{1}{5}, is incorrect.


3. Calculating P(Y)P(Y): By definition of P(X∣Y)P(X|Y): P(X∣Y)=P(X∩Y)P(Y)P(X|Y) = \frac{P(X \cap Y)}{P(Y)}

Substitute the known values: 12=215P(Y)\frac{1}{2} = \frac{\frac{2}{15}}{P(Y)}   ⟹  P(Y)=2×215=415\implies P(Y) = 2 \times \frac{2}{15} = \frac{4}{15}

Thus, Option (A) is correct.


4. Calculating P(X′∣Y)P(X'|Y): Since P(X′∣Y)+P(X∣Y)=1P(X'|Y) + P(X|Y) = 1: P(X′∣Y)=1−P(X∣Y)=1−12=12P(X'|Y) = 1 - P(X|Y) = 1 - \frac{1}{2} = \frac{1}{2}

Thus, Option (B) is correct.


5. Calculating P(X∪Y)P(X \cup Y): Using the addition theorem of probability: P(X∪Y)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(X∩Y)P(X \cup Y) = P(X) + P(Y) - P(X \cap Y)

Substitute the calculated values: P(X∪Y)=13+415−215P(X \cup Y) = \frac{1}{3} + \frac{4}{15} - \frac{2}{15} P(X∪Y)=515+415−215=715P(X \cup Y) = \frac{5}{15} + \frac{4}{15} - \frac{2}{15} = \frac{7}{15}

Since 715≠25\frac{7}{15} \neq \frac{2}{5}, Option (D) is incorrect.


Conclusion: The correct options are A and B.