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Calculate Probability Candidate Travelled by Bus Given Late Arrival

A candidate has to go to the examination centre to appear in an examination. The candidate uses only one means of transportation for the entire distance out of bus, scooter and car. The probabilities of the candidate going by bus, scooter and car, respectively, are 25\frac{2}{5}, 15\frac{1}{5} and 25\frac{2}{5}. The probabilities that the candidate reaches late at the examination centre are 15\frac{1}{5}, 13\frac{1}{3} and 14\frac{1}{4} if the candidate uses bus, scooter and car, respectively. Given that the candidate reached late at the examination centre, the probability that the candidate travelled by bus is :

Options

A

\frac{11}{37}

B

\frac{12}{37}

Correct
C

\frac{13}{37}

D

\frac{14}{37}

Topics & Concepts

Step-by-Step Solution

Let BB, SS, and CC denote the events that the candidate travels by bus, scooter, and car, respectively, and let LL denote the event that the candidate arrives late.

We are given the prior probabilities: P(B)=25,P(S)=15,P(C)=25P(B) = \frac{2}{5}, \quad P(S) = \frac{1}{5}, \quad P(C) = \frac{2}{5}

The conditional probabilities of being late are: P(LB)=15,P(LS)=13,P(LC)=14P(L|B) = \frac{1}{5}, \quad P(L|S) = \frac{1}{3}, \quad P(L|C) = \frac{1}{4}

Using Bayes' Theorem, the probability that the candidate travelled by bus given that they arrived late is: P(BL)=P(B)P(LB)P(B)P(LB)+P(S)P(LS)+P(C)P(LC)P(B|L) = \frac{P(B) P(L|B)}{P(B) P(L|B) + P(S) P(L|S) + P(C) P(L|C)}

Substituting the given values into the formula: P(BL)=2515(2515)+(1513)+(2514)=225225+115+110=22537150=1237P(B|L) = \frac{\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{1}{5}}{\left(\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{1}{5}\right) + \left(\frac{1}{5} \cdot \frac{1}{3}\right) + \left(\frac{2}{5} \cdot \frac{1}{4}\right)} = \frac{\frac{2}{25}}{\frac{2}{25} + \frac{1}{15} + \frac{1}{10}} = \frac{\frac{2}{25}}{\frac{37}{150}} = \frac{12}{37}

Thus, the correct option is B.

Calculate Probability Candidate Travelled by Bus Given Late Arrival | Mathematics PYQ Solution - JEE Challenger